Data Selection
Please make selections to specify the data you wish to analyse. The data selected can be viewed using the graphic at the bottom of the page or edited by switching to the table and double clicking the relevant cells.
If you wish to have extra flexibility in specifying the data source and/or statistics produced, please select Advanced mode below.
Scaling
Scaling can remove trends caused by known indexes such as population, to help make losses more comparable between years. Basic mode always scales by population but advanced mode allows for more options.
For each given year, a scaling factor is calculated by dividing the scaling data for the most recent year by the given year. Each peril year is then multiplied by the scaling factor for that year to give a corrected loss in terms of the most recent scaling year.
For archetype data, scaling has been pre-applied and no scaling options will be available.
Final Data
The peril data displayed below has been multiplied by the chosen scaling factors and detrended (if detrending selected in advanced mode).
This data is what the tool will use to fit the parametric distributions to each peril and produce the outputs.
Simulations
The Tool runs 15,000 simulations for each parametric distribution that has been successfully fitted to a given peril. If multiple distributions are fit for a peril, the one with the highest AIC (Aikaike Information Criterion) weight is selected.
In advanced mode the user can change the selected distribution for a given peril.
Outputs
In this tab, the user can view the simulated losses across the selected perils calculated from the distributions selected on the previous page. Selecting combinations of perils will combine each peril's simulations to produce a new set of 15,000 simulations. Therefore the risk profile of two perils is not the sum of the losses at each return period. When perils are combined the tools assumes no correlation between each peril.
95% confidence intervals can be toggled. These show the range of possible values for each return period that 95% of losses will fall within.
About
Overview
This Tool has been developed to support World Bank client countries better understand the risk of losses occurring from natural disasters. It is an educational tool which aims to increase the user's understanding of the risk associated with disasters and loss distributions.
This Tool can be used with any of the following: preloaded country data, one of the six preloaded data archetypes, or manually inputted data which may be uploaded into the tool. This Tool depends on the quality of the data which is input. Therefore, the output from this Tool remains only an indication of the losses associated with a natural disaster, actual losses may differ significantly from the Tool's output.
The Tool is designed to work on a laptop or desktop PC with the web browser maximised, you may not be able to use the Tool on smaller screens. Please read the user guides before use.
Authorship
This Tool was developed by the Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program (DRFIP) which is housed in the Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice of the World Bank Group. It has been developed with financial support from the European Union.
Disclaimer
This Tool has been developed to support World Bank client countries better understand the risk of losses caused by natural disasters. Information in the Tool is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute legal or scientific advice or service. The World Bank makes no warranties or representations, express or implied as to the accuracy or reliability of the Tool or the data contained therein. Users of the Tool should seek qualified expert advice for specific diagnostic and analysis of a particular project. Any use thereof or reliance thereon is at the sole and independent discretion and responsibility of the user. No conclusions or inferences drawn from the Tool should be attributed to the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. This Tool does not imply any judgement or endorsement on the part of the World Bank. In no event will the World Bank be liable for any form of damage arising from the application or misapplication of the tool, or any other associated materials.
User Guide Links
Please find links to the model documentation:
Link to user guideThis comprises a quick start guide as well as a more detailed reference guide explaining the functionality of the model.